The failure of the UK from the EU without the Internet would cause considerable economic pain across Europe, leaving the region without winners, the international monetary Fund has warned.
As the new Secretary of the British exit from the EU, Dominic Raab has warned Europe to prepare for non-online output, the IMF said that such an outcome would hurt the UK, but also can have dire economic consequences for Ireland and other EU countries.
Leaving the UK: Raab and Barnier to meet as the EU steps no-warning
In its annual health check for Euro zone, the Washington-based Fund said economic growth in the remaining 27 countries in the EU would fall by as much as 1.5% by the year 2030, if the UK returns to world trade organization rules to its trade relations with the EU after the departure of the next year.
And economic indicators for the UK more than twice that amount – wiping almost 4% of GDP – Ireland may suffer almost as much as a result of the strong economic ties with Britain and a common border.
The Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium, similar and close trade ties, also lose about 1% of GDP.
Smaller Nations with deep financial ties city of London, such as Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg also have a negative impact on the hard British exit from the EU, the Fund warned.
The IMF said that in the long-term impact with hard British exit from the EU will be distributed for the EU as a result of economic and financial relations, encompassing a region that grew closer by about 40% over the past quarter century. The UK is among the three largest trading partners of the EU, accounting for 13% of trade in goods and services. There are also complex chains of relationships between companies of the EU countries.
The Fund warned that the lack of progress between Brussels and Westminster negotiating the British exit from the EU has increased the risk of emergency exit. He said: “the strength of the district-UK Euro-integration implies that there will be winners withdraw Britain from the EU.”
Mahmood Pradhan, Deputy Director, European Department, IMF, said, “We are very concerned about. It’s pretty late and we see no clarity yet on the future relationship and we are near some important deadlines”.
While hopes remain for a deal by the time the EU Council will meet in October in advance of the UK formal departure in March next year, Ministers were preparing to release more than 70 papers describing the preparation of the company were in the UK to leave without an agreement. The European Commission also plans to issue a consultation paper for the EU27 about the consequences of the breakdown of negotiations.
The Fund also warned that the free trade agreement between London and Brussels is the preferred option Theresa may have many negative consequences for both parties.
If the UK leaves the single market and the customs Union, but strikes wide free trade agreement, the report said the IMF, GDP could fall by 0.5% in the EU. UK and Ireland again incur losses above the average, more than 2% of GDP.
The IMF said a “relatively favorable” scenario of a British exit from the EU, which Britain remained a member of the European economic area – similar to the arrangement for Norway would call “minor” losses.
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This is not the first time the Fund has intervened in quarter and month. On the eve of the referendum two years ago, the IMF predicted that the vote to leave the EU would entail the collapse of the stock market and the downturn in 2017, drawing angry reactions from the release of the UK activists who have attacked his record on economic forecasting.
The predictions were wrong. The British economy managed to avoid recession and the stock market reached a record level, but in the UK has fallen to the bottom of the G7 growth League, and families have lost £900 in each of the higher level of inflation, according to the Bank of England.
Pradhan said the Foundation was open to criticism about their models, but added: “we believe [last evaluations] are strong enough. There is always a degree of uncertainty about these estimates and we would recognize that.”